The past week has been a flurry of activity in the market, and personally, a week of pain. Theme of the week: missed opportunities. It started when Icahn sold his shares of Netflix (ticker NFLX) ahead of the 7:1 stock split on 7/15. I should have bought some then. Then the split took place and the stock closed at $98.13. I should have bought some then. The following day the stock jumped 18% to close at $115.81. I felt a stab in my heart. Missed opportunity. The stock is hovering at $112 now. Should I go long on Netflix?
Let’s look at the other company causing commotion in the market last week: Google (ticker GOOG). Google had been steady at $530ish for a while. Not hogging any headlines like Tesla or Apple. They were not pushing anything major and no special projects making into the news. Then earnings came on 7/16 and bam! The price jumped 16% the next day to close at $672.93. I should have seen it coming. The price was quietly climbing for 2 days leading to it. Another missed opportunity. Google is a tech giant and a very diverse company. Downside is really limited. Should I go long on Google?
Then comes GoPro (ticker GPRO). I had it last year then sold it for a modest profit for more exciting companies. I know it is a good company to invest in. It will make consumer drones which will be interesting. The price has been in the mid $50s. Then once again, earnings came and bam, it jumped 7% to close at $60.80. It went up about 1% yesterday and it is now hovering at $62. Should I go long on GoPro?
Then I tell myself. I am heavily invested in Apple (ticker AAPL). I know sales of the watch had been disappointing. iPad sales had been cannibalized by the bigger screen iPhone. However, I have tremendous faith in the company, especially the potential of Apple Pay. If Apple Pay takes off, iPhone sales will follow in the same trajectory. I tell myself, I can’t have it all. Of all the companies I can put my money in, I choose Apple. That conviction was good and helped me sleep at night. Earnings came for Apple yesterday too. Unlike the companies mentioned above, the share price did not jump post earnings. The bears won and chose to focus on the riskiness of the Chinese market and disappointing watch sales. I have been long on Apple for a long time so the 4.5% drop today didn’t cause much damage. In a world of limited resources, the big question now comes: do I buy on the lower price, worry and decrease my holdings or do nothing? Do I invest in the above companies. Honestly, of the 3 I’ll probably invest in GoPro at the right price. I will go in at $57 which I see as a support line and a fair price to pay. There are so many unchartered areas the company can go into and I think it has the right leadership in place for that. As for Netflix the jump was due to the company going into China. Again the China story. I know it will boost revenues for a bit. But I think the boost has been priced into the share price today. It may go up a little more but I’m not sure I want to take the chance and have my money tied up there (limited resources). As for Google, it is a great company but I still think there is more upside for Apple than Google. In any case, it is like picking between Lamarcus Aldridge and Demarcus Cousins in my fantasy draft last season. Can’t go wrong with either.
chewingvampire 